I find the subject line a bit misleading because it makes it look as if the preposition changes the meaning. But you can use both with both:
This is based on/upon the figures...
= dies basiert auf den .... Zahlen
We based our assumption on/upon the fact that...
and here it gets a bit complicated because you can' t use 'auf etw. basiesen' here:
* Wir basieren die Annahme auf der Tatsache, dass* is incorrect IMO.
You'd have to say, again: die Annahme basiert auf...
or rephrase with a different verb.
I personally usually use simply 'on', too.